Hungary's Break With Moscow Becomes Official

On 1 October, Russia said it would expel a group of Hungarian diplomats. Staff at Hungary's embassy in Moscow and its consulates in St Petersburg and Kazan were given two weeks to leave. Moscow called it retaliation for Budapest's expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats in September. Hungary had accused them of activities "unacceptable for diplomats under the Vienna Convention", wording that Reuters notes is often used to signal espionage.

Expulsions like this are routine elsewhere in Europe. In Hungary they are new. It was Budapest's first such move since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Viktor Orbán, who governed for 16 years until losing the April election, kept close ties with Vladimir Putin and continued to buy Russian oil and gas. He refused to join other EU states in expelling Russian envoys. He also repeatedly used Hungary's veto to block Ukraine-related decisions in Brussels.

A different posture, within limits

Prime Minister Péter Magyar's center-right government says the EU and NATO are Hungary's main alliances, and that it wants to rebuild trust lost under Orbán. In late August its guidance to diplomats at the UN General Assembly described Russia as a threat to Hungary and to the "global order." After Moscow's announcement, Budapest said that it is "not interested in an escalation" and will keep a diplomatic presence in Russia.

The change has limits. Euronews reports that Hungary is still blocking new chapters in Ukraine's EU accession talks until it gets concessions on the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Magyar has also promised "pragmatic" relations with Moscow.

For investors in Central Europe and anyone following EU decision-making, the significance is that one of the bloc's most reliable veto players is moving closer to the European mainstream, though it is not adopting every position.

Sources: Reuters, Euronews.