Chile’s Copper Shortfall Gets a Strike

Chile. The world’s largest copper producer is producing less of it. Chile mined 369,500 tonnes in August, down 12.8% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February 2011, Latin Times reported, citing national statistics. Codelco, BHP’s Escondida and Spence accounted for 91% of the country’s net output loss in the first half.

On 9 October more than 700 workers from two unions walked out at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine, the first strike in its history, after mandatory mediation failed. The dispute concerns pay and benefit gaps between workers doing identical jobs. Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes in 2025, more than a third of Antofagasta’s output. The company says full-year guidance stands, citing inventory and redeployment; the unions estimate curtailments could begin about two weeks in. Natalia Corfield, JPMorgan’s head of Latin America corporate credit research, warned the impact could be “quite significant” without a deal.

## The price
Three-month LME copper traded near $14,475 a tonne on the day, close to its record and up about 16% this year. US copper was around $6.66 a pound, per Trading Economics, not far from the roughly $6.88 August record. By mid-August LME warehouse stocks had fallen for 42 straight days to 204,975 tonnes, the longest run since 2014, Crux Investor noted.

## The swing factor
Societe Generale calls Washington’s tariff decision the “single biggest catalyst.” The Commerce Department has recommended a phased tariff on refined copper, 15% from January 2027 rising to 30% in 2028; the president has yet to decide. Traders shipped about 885,000 tonnes of refined copper into the US in the first half ahead of that call. Some of the tightness, in other words, is policy-made. A decision that ends the incentive to stockpile, or a quick settlement at Centinela, is the main risk to the bull case.

Sources: Latin Times, BigGo Finance, Trading Economics, Crux Investor. This is information, not investment advice.